Egypt’s Economic Peril amid Continuous Protests

Egypt entered the fifth day of its latest round of protests, the longest running since the protests earlier this year that led to the ouster of long-time ruler Hosni Mubarak.

Protestors descended upon Cairo’s Tahrir Square again on Friday, July 8 calling for swifter judicial proceedings against members of the former regime. On July 12, an Egyptian court sentenced Ahmed Nazif, the country’s former prime minister, to a one-year suspended jail term. Two other ministers from Mubarak’s cabinet were also sentenced to prison for fraud.

The former interior minister Habib al-Adli was sentenced to five years with the ex-finance minister Youssef Boutros-Ghali getting slammed with 10 years. And amid the cabinet reshuffle, Egypt’s Prime Minister Essam Sharaf has been pressured to accept the resignation of his deputy. Yehia el-Gamal had previously tendered his resignation, but it was rejected by the ruling military council. Nazif, al-Adli, and Boutros-Ghali were fined $15.6 million with Boutros-Ghali and al-Adli receiving another fine for $16.9 million.

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has issued a statement calling for calm and warned against conducting protests that "deviated from peaceful means." In the statement the army vowed to hand power to civilians and pledged support for the prime minister.

On the ground in Cairo, emotions seem mixed regarding the continuous protests. Many consider the current sit-in in Tahrir Square to be well-founded, but others concede that repeated dissention upon the square is only harming the country. Prices in all sectors have sky-rocketed. Tourism, the main feeder of Egypt’s economy is down significantly, and the Egyptian stock market is at an eight-week low.

As the protests continue and the repeated calls for the military rule to end, there have still been no real alternatives put forward. Political pundits say that the country will remain in limbo until a concrete plan for a democratic society is put into place. Presidential candidate Amr Moussa gave an interview with CNN International for which he called for reforms to take place in the North African country. When asked for specific plans to implement these reforms, Moussa responded, “Generally speaking, we need a free economy.” However, Moussa is not alone. None of the candidates rising to the forefront for presidency have discussed any real plan of action to help bring Egypt back from economic peril.

Many businesses are relocating their workforce and/or terminating contracts of employees because the atmosphere remains uncertain. The SCAF repeatedly insists that it will hand over political power to a civilian administration after elections. General Mohsen al-Fangary, SCAF’s spokesperson, said the council is committed to holding parliamentary elections, followed by the drafting of a new constitution, and then presidential elections.

The armed forces, which were hailed as heroes at the start of the January 25 uprising for not shooting protesters, have come under fire for using Mubarak-era tactics to stifle dissent and maintain an absolute grip on power. Members of the press are saying that there is more freedom of press than ever before, but there remains a clear red tape on any reporting involving military affairs. Meanwhile, a court in Egypt has just ordered the state-owned satellite operator Nilesat to cease transmission of 14 Libyan channels.

Taking into account the freedoms granted to Egyptians pre-revolution, it appears as though nothing has really changed. A witch hunt has begun, not only for members of Mubarak’s administration, but also into corruption allegations into foreign companies, top executives of banks, and many more.

Estimates previously predicted Egypt’s GDP to grow at 7%, with tourism responsible for 5% to 11% of the country’s GDP. However, now Egypt’s GDP outlook has dropped to a mere 1%. Foreign direct investment has fallen dramatically in the wake of ongoing demonstrations, labor strikes, and total anarchy. The industry is only operating at 50% capacity, exports have plummeted by 40%, tourism has taken a blow of $13.5 billion in lost revenue, and budget deficits are set to hit 8.6% of GDP in 2012.

 

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