Political climates change often throughout Africa, and the death of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi could have a serious impact on the country and the region. Security firm AKE said in a release, “The country will face numerous challenges over the coming months.”
Zenawi helped merge the ruling four-party coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), and ruled for over 20 years. As he was planning to run for another term with elections set for 2015, the constitution sites that the parliament will determine the interim successor; however, AKE said it would be “surprising if this weakened institution were to be given such authority.”
According to AKE Africa specialist Hannah Waddilove stability will be the utmost concern of Ethiopia’s ruling elite and the country’s international backers. "The priority for neighboring countries and Ethiopia’s key Western allies will be continuity in the country’s historically important regional role. This support will almost certainly be at the expense of democratic development. As such, the opposition is unlikely to be given greater breathing space to operate. Social and economic tensions may also become more prominent during the transition period. Meles’ death could embolden ethnic and religious fault-lines across the country, bringing the inherent weakness of the government’s iron fist to the fore.”
The security firm predicts Ethiopia’s regional role may take a hit. The East African country is seen as a leader for the region and has Africa’s largest army as well as being a key security ally of the US. AKE also noted: “Despite headline stories of strong economic growth, the country’s inflation is at an unsustainable high, severely affecting the price of basic commodities. In addition, the government’s recent interference into the affairs of the country’s Muslim community resulted in a number of sustained protests in Addis.”
The next leader of the East African powerhouse is unclear and dealing with the country’s economic problems will be a large task despite Ethiopia’s recent economic surge.
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