TGS has extended its global outlook for offshore wind to 2035, offering long-term insights as the offshore wind industry navigates an evolving landscape. Published exclusively to members of the 4C Offshore Premium market intelligence subscription, the Q4 2024 Global Market Overview Report provides a forward-looking analysis that covers forecasts, recent market developments and next steps across more than 30 markets worldwide.
Notable achievements and significant transitions have marked the past 12 months. During 2024, the offshore wind energy sector set new records for permitting and securing offtake contracts, underscoring its resilience and adaptability. Building on this momentum, 2025 is positioned to set new milestones, with even higher levels of capacity expected to reach financial close and be secured under offtake agreements.
The fourth-quarter 2024 report highlights how 2024’s consequential elections and auctions have catalyzed significant changes, with government support gradually catching up to industry cost pressures. Governments globally aimed to lease about 72 gigawatts of new sites this year, with 65.2 gigawatts awarded. However, only 16.6 gigawatts of approximately 30 gigawatts of targeted offtake capacity was secured. While recent auctions have seen mixed success — particularly in Denmark, where an auction received no bids — global growth prospects remain promising.
New global key forecasts show that 410 gigawatts of offshore wind projects will start construction by the end of 2035, with the Asia-Pacific market share set to expand significantly, from 7% today to about 16%. Retaining its leadership position, Europe’s share is expected to grow from 44% now to 49% by 2035, leveraging its long development experience to weather supply chain disruptions. Additionally, China’s role remains dominant, with 26% of global capacity starting offshore construction by the middle of the next decade.
With this longer-term vision, the U.K. and U.S. are predicted to be outside the top three markets globally — a consequence of supply chain and policy uncertainty. By contrast, emerging markets outside the top 10 are projected to hold more than 17% of global offshore wind capacity by 2035, a significant increase from 1.1% today. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Romania and Turkey each published an offshore wind roadmap, Canada took a crucial legislative step with Bill C-49, and Brazil and Colombia advanced their regulatory frameworks. This rapid evolution signals a more diverse and geographically dispersed market that extends well beyond traditional industry hubs.
For more information and the full release, visit TGS here.